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On one level the book works for me. Volcanism, variability of the earth's magnetic fields, extreme variability in solar activity, and the potential catastrophic effect of extraterrestrial objects are indeed threats to what, with our limited time view, we consider to be an optimum and stable world. The writer also refers to science which shows that extreme variability in these areas is the rule, not the exception. The earth has ranged from a frigid snowball to a completely ice free planet. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has been orders of magnitude above current levels and oxygen has ranged down to near zero. The magnetic poles have swapped ends frequently, if not regularly. There is evidence that suggests the earth has collided with large objects from space. We do not fully understand, and are not able to predict with accuracy, what is going to happen in these areas. Therefore, we can not rule out such catastrophes during our lifetimes.However, the theme of this book is that the Mayan calendar ending 2012 portends the end of civilization at that date. The author rather glibly moves from the descriptions of variability of these natural phenomena to the conclusion that his scientific investigations support the end of civilization at this date. It is quite a leap from saying we may be hit by a meteor at any time, to saying science tells me its 2012.
PROBLEMS WITH THE BOOK'S SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION
Since the author builds his case on unrelated facts in several fields, his scientific case rests entirely on the validity and total weight of those independent, incremental threats. I have therefor largely skipped over what I think are inaccurate or irrelevant observations and just focused on a few examples where it is easy to exhibit errors. However, the major science writing flaw is not the facts themselves but the easy morphing from mentioning something as a possibility and then assuming it to be firm prediction. An example is Yellowstone major eruptions 2 million , 1.3 million, and 640,000 years ago which the author spins as "probability statistics" indicating "that we are right on schedule for the next big blow". If this is really his idea of probability statistics he should definitely stay away from Las Vegas.
Magnetic Pole Shift: In this discussion the author mixes discussion of a possible potential magnetic pole shift and an impossible physical pole shift. Obviously a physical pole shift would have enormous climatic and tectonic consequences with tremendous changes in rotational kinetic energy. The earth would literally tear itself to pieces, but with no extremely large external energy input this is not possible. No mainstream scientists have proposed that this is even remotely possible. When the author states that the intensity of hurricanes and tornadoes will be effected by a magnetic pole shift he can only be confusing the coriolis effect (caused by the physical rotation of the earth) with the magnetic effect. Nonetheless, a magnetic pole shift is a matter of concern, but no evidence has been presented that it is scheduled for 2012.
Volcanism: Aside from the example above there are some factual mistakes. One bit of silliness is the claim that the Bush administration has "authorized the drilling of an additional 10,000 oil wells in Yellowstone, in addition to the 5,600 already there." There are no oil wells now and none planned. Besides the fact that no mineral extraction is allowed in the National Parks, oil is found in sedimentary basins so it wouldn't make sense to drill into a caldera looking for oil. I guess blaming politicians and oil companies for the end of civilization gives credibility to the book?
In a second bit of silliness, the author writes of the possibility that terrorists would insert a thermonuclear device into the Yellowstone caldera, igniting the super volcano. One would suppose that terrorists possessing such a weapon, presumably tactical in size, would opt for setting it off in a major city rather than undertaking to move a hard rock drilling rig into a National Park and risking the probability that almost nothing would happen when it exploded underground.
A third problem with this section is the confusing of cause and effect. The author frequently invokes the Gaia Hypothesis about which he has written a previous book (which I have not read). At one level, about which there is not really any scientific controversy, the Gaia hypothesis is merely that the total geologic, climatic, and biological systems of the earth exhibit remarkably stable equilibrium in that they can recover from large perturbations. If the systems were inherently unstable some of the extremes (the snowball earth, the ice free earth) would tip into instabilities such as a hothouse Venus or a frigid Mars. At another level, Gaia becomes almost a philosophy of "Mother Earth" taking care of herself and is outside the realm of scientific inquiry. The author seems to me to be unsure of which of these he is invoking and to some extent by bringing in the Gaia Hypothesis he undermines his apocalyptic message.
In the section on volcanoes it is correctly stated that volcanic eruptions affect the climate. The author states that the eruptions cool the planet and that volcanic eruptions are the Gaia response to global warming, ergo since the earth is warming we are going to have massive volcanic eruptions to cool it. COOL! Except that while volcanoes both cool and warm (they are a major source of carbon dioxide so that they cool in the short term but warm the climate in the longer term) they are the cause of some climate changes, not the effect. There is no evidence that climate causes volcanic eruptions.
Sun Spots: Scientifically this is the most interesting part of the book and presents a clear picture of how dependent we are on a fluctuating heat source which emits radiation which could also fry us. Joseph points out that extreme climate variability has happened in the historic era. As he points out Iceland lost half of its population and the colony in Greenland died out entirely in the Maunder Minimum. It is well known by historians that Iceland and Greenland before 1300 both supported Viking farming communities with the climate being warmer than it is today. Strange this doesn't show up on Al Gore's hockey stick temperature chart, but then propagandists must learn to fudge the data when necessary to motivate people to do the right thing!
It is difficult to make the Sun scary. Joseph perhaps tries too hard in describing the proton storm of January 20, 2005, or perhaps he just got his physics wrong. Joseph reports that the protons got to Earth in 30 minutes, traveling at about a quarter of the speed of light. "At even a fraction of the speed of light, the mass gets much heavier. So those protons instead of being nearly weightless, would have impacted the Earth with the force of tiny pebbles." If we assume for ease of calculation that Joseph's "tiny pebble" weighs one gram (1/26th of an ounce) then he would be claiming that the mass of one proton was multiplied by 6.022 followed by 23 zeros.( 600 billion trillion). Chemists will recognize this as Avogadro's Number. As the speed of a particle is increased its kinetic energy increases with the square of the speed. Under Einstein's E=mc2, that energy increase actually increases the mass. Combining the kinetic energy equation with the e=mc2 gives us the formula for computing the mass increase. For a speed of one fourth of the speed of light the mass increase is only just over 3%, not 600,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times!
Space: This section almost entirely rest on the theories of A. N. Dimitriev and could have been (was?) written by reading his paper "PLANETOPHYSICAL STATE OF THE EARTH AND LIFE." This article is very strange, seeming to be more mystical than scientific. Example. "These fundamental processes of change create a demand within all of Earth's life organisms for new forms of adaptation. The natural development of these new forms may lead to a total global revision of the range of species, and life, on Earth. New deeper qualities of life itself may come forth, bringing the new physical state of the Earth to an equilibrium with the new organismic possibilities of development, reproduction, and perfection." And it goes on and on. At this point in the book I am beginning to think that perhaps I am one of the last to be in on the joke.
The giveaway the book is possibly meant as a parody is in the conclusion of Chapter 8, Heading into the Energy Cloud. Joseph says that we may have to escape the Earth by colonizing the stars.
"Work is underway. In southwestern New Mexico .... the mandatory neofascist/Freemason cabal secretly run out of the Vatican by rogue elements of the CIA, working day and night to liberate trillions in mob accounts (illegally and immorally held hostage by greedy international bankers), with which they will buy up tracts of land, where they will create an underground city (because if the city were above ground people might start asking questions), breed special livestock and foodstuffs, and assemble a modular spaceship enabling a pod of 160 (the ideal number) or 144,000 (the other ideal number) chosen individuals to flee the earth just before it blows apart in December 2012 and soar, using a miniature controlled nuclear fusion reactor, to a nearby star system that we, for the purposes of this off-the-record discussion, will call Rom, where a type M, earth like planet awaits colonization."
Conclusion: Okay, so maybe the book is some sort of spoof. If so, Joseph is ridiculing the significant part of our population which is gullible enough to believe in the end of the world theories. But, on the other hand, he seems to be marketing the book as apocalyptic, not as a comic send-up of such books. Certainly a lot of money was made on the Millennium scare so maybe Joseph is just trying to cash in on the genre.
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